The Open Round 1 review, Round 2 predictions
So, the first day at The Open is over and what have we learned. First thing is, don’t hit it in the bunkers. Second thing, don’t hit it in the burn, and third thing is hole as many putts as you can. Simple.
The course played exactly as expected, hard and fast. Players really didn’t need to hit driver all that often but those that did, and played it well were giving themselves some really good opportunities for birdie. If you didn’t hit it well though, you were, for want of a better term, in the shit! Brooks Koepka set his stall out from the word go after smashing driver on the first to about 12ft and he stuck to that aggressive approach throughout round 1. He was -1 after one hole but not too many holes later he was at +4, he then continued to smash it and come back to finish at +1. I’m expecting some fireworks from Brooks over the next few days. Good or bad fireworks it remains to be seen. I think he is a good bet and his odds will be enhanced after a very mixed round one!
A couple of really good performances from some possibly unexpected sources. Danny Willett who was my outside bet came in at -2 after finishing with a pair of bogeys which was disappointing but still a great showing. I can honestly see him getting better as the week goes on. His confidence seems to be growing with each round he plays so I’m sticking with him as an outside bet.
A surprising one for me was Dustin Johnson. He finished at +5 and could have potentially put himself out of the tournament. This just shows that picking the right strategy around this golf course is absolutely key if you are going to score well. If you are playing aggressive golf, you must avoid the bunkers and that massively annoying Burn that keeps getting in the way, Dustin didn’t do that and just to make his sleep tonight that little bit less enjoyable, he finished with a treble bogey, fuming!
Over the next few days I can see a lot of players changing the way that they play the golf course. The lads that have played conservatively but have found themselves way back may opt for a more aggressive approach and vice versa so I think we could see a range of scores out there.
TW (Tiger Woods, I like to pretend I know him) impressed me today. Although he’s only at even par, he had his chances today. He was unfortunate to find a couple of shocking lies in the bunker over the last few holes so he dropped a few coming in. Tomorrow is massive for Tiger, a little more good fortune and a couple more putts going in and Big Cat is back in the mix. Look I’ve done it again ‘Big Cat’. Who actually calls him that! Still available at very attractive odds. It’s Tiger f**kin Woods!
So, who is going to be the half way leader this week, I’m going with John Rahm. I thought he looked great today. Played aggressively when he needed to and conservatively when it was required. He actually missed a couple of opportunities coming in too and I really don’t think he’s fazed by the occasion. He is three shots behind the lead but the players in front of him, no disrespect, are players that you probably wouldn’t expect to be. I think John Rahm is going low tomorrow, you heard it here first, unless someone else said it before me.
I haven’t really mentioned Rory this week. That’s probably because he doesn’t seem to be on his best form at the moment but he’s shot 2 under par today without really breaking a sweat. He does seem to have that miss left in the bag at the moment but even with that, he is still 2 under and right in this tournament. I can’t discount him. The question is, can he do it for the four rounds. Well obviously he can as he’s done it before.
It’s set up to be a great few days, a bunched leader board means it is still anyone’s, well not anyone’s, those that aren’t playing have no chance, but you know what I’m saying. I bloody love The Open!
The Luck of the Draw
With The Open set to start on Thursday at Carnoustie it is set up to be a really interesting week. The course will be playing really firm and fast which I think brings a lot of players into the mix, it’s not all about the bombers and a ‘how far can you smash it’ competition. It will be about keeping the ball in play, controlling your ball flight and obviously holing putts. The conditions aren’t guaranteed to be the same for everyone though!
I’ve been in the position myself. I’ve had an afternoon tee time, got up in the morning to a nice sunny, calm day and thought “yep, there for the taking today”. My tee time comes around and I’m stood on the first tee in my waterproofs getting lashed on and blown all over the place. Hating life, whilst the morning lads are sat in the clubhouse, coffee in hand, laughing at us. It happens. The first tee time on Thursday is 6.35 and the last at 16.16. that’s almost ten hours between the first and last tee time. We can have four seasons in that length of time, especially in Scotland so it will be interesting to see how conditions play a part.
In my experience, especially at links courses, playing early is often a good thing as long as it’s not in the middle of Winter and -4 outside, in that case, I’d suggest staying in bed. An early time can also be a bit of an issue if you’ve had eight pints the night before but this shouldn’t be an issue for these lads, and I think John Daly is injured! It can obviously be a little cooler in the morning but with the current British weather being more like the Caribbean it should still be relatively warm early on. The greens will be freshly cut and rolled so the early starters know they’ll have the purest surfaces to putt on, no excuses there. With the quality of the field at The Open, the margins between being in contention and missing the cut are really fine so having the advantage of being the first on a green rather than follow the 155 people before you can really help! Of course, if you’re early on the Thursday, you’ll be late on the Friday so in theory, it should even itself out, but believe me, that’s not always the case. We’ve seen it in the past when it has literally played like two different tournaments. I remember Muirfield in 2002 on the Saturday, the leaders had some of the worst weather I’ve ever seen on a golf course, I think Tiger shot 81. The early starters didn’t see any of the storm and a lot of them had put themselves right back in the tournament. Obviously, this is an extreme example and as far as I’m aware, we are not due any freak storms this week at Carnoustie.
I’m still expecting someone form the early starters to set the pace on Thursday and I wouldn’t be surprised if the first-round leader comers from one of the morning tee times. So, who is going to be leading at the end of round one? Well if I knew that, I’d be a lot richer, but I can give you my best guess. First group out at 6.35 is Sandy Lyle, Martin Kaymer and Andy Sullivan. I think you’d get some very long odds on Sandy Lyle! but I wouldn’t be surprised if Andy Sullivan is up there at the end of the day. He’s a player that has struggled to find form the past couple of seasons but he looks to be getting back to his best, he’s really good value too at 80/1 first round leader.
Tyrell Hatton, although he can look like he’s going to punch someone in the crowd at any given moment, he can play and he can definitely shoot low. He’s playing early on Thursday so he’ll have the best greens and when he putts well he’s dangerous, not literally dangerous, I just mean in a golf score sense.
Sergio Garcia has shown in the past that he can play this golf course having lost in a play off last time around. He does not enjoy a lip out on the 18th though! He’s been relatively quiet since winning the Masters but Sergio is so good. He controls his ball flight really well too and he has the Spanish hands around the greens so his game definitely suits Carnoustie. He’s off late on Thursday but with the quality that Sergio has, I think that won’t bother him.
My bet for first round leader is John Rahm. He recently finished 5thin the The French Open followed by a 4thposition in the Irish. This boy can play links golf! He was -24 in last year’s Irish open to win by a good few and it’s only a matter of time before this angry Spaniard picks up a major. Looking forward to it!
All the latest odds on first round leader and loads of Open specials are available at www.fansbet.com
How good is the Open! The wait for the one is nearly over, the players will have already been out on the course at Carnoustie and they will probably be thinking 'how the hell do we get it around this place". It's definitely one of, if not the toughest course on The Open roster and usually produces some drama. Often you can remember the losers just as much as the winners at Carnoustie, think Paul Lawrie and Jean Claude Van Damme….sorry, I mean Van De Velde - feel sick thinking about that 🤢- Padraig Harrington, Sergio (it's ok though because he's won The Masters now). It's the type of golf course that can create really memorable shots whether it be for their brilliance or their ridiculousness.
So what do you need to conquer Carnoustie….apart from being really good at cheating, that’s frowned upon by the R&A.
DON’T HIT IT IN THE GORSE BUSHES, IT HURTS
It’s not necessarily about the bombers who hit it miles. The fairways will be playing hard and fast as we’ve had so much sun recently. So much so that I still can’t find anywhere with paddling pools in stock! That’s irrelevant to who’s going to win The Open but it’s equally annoying for me. In my opinion, the players that stand the best chance of being a major contender on Sunday are the ones that can control their golf ball, from the trajectory to the shape of the ball flight. The likes of Sergio, Francesco Molinaro, possibly Bubba….although I think he might actually do it too much for a course like this.
DON’T LOSE THE PLOT
One thing that you can almost guarantee here is that mistakes will be made, it’s too difficult not to. It’s just a case of accepting this and getting on with the job, easier said than done. I’ve always thought Justin Rose plays with great patience and looks relatively unfazed when something goes wrong, that and the fact that he is an unreal golfer would suggest he has a chance, he has a chance whenever he tees it up though to be fair.
GET IT IN THE HOLE
This really goes without saying, rarely will someone win a tournament without putting well, so saying the winner will putt well, is kind of useless. Taking a look at the putting stats for the year could give you a good idea of who might be up there.
So to sum it up, Carnoustie is hard! The winners here the last two times were Padriag Harrington and Paul Lawrie. Both grew up playing a lot of links golf in the great British weather. Could be an indication of who this place might suit. The winner will be someone who hits it straight and holes putts for fun. Any the wiser? Keep an eye out over the next few days as I’ll be trying to help you out with some decent tips. All the odds are available at www.fansbet.com
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